On Tuesday I painted a picture (UK threatened by rule from the English shires) of the United Kingdom ruled by a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition dependent on MPs for the English shires. I was wrong, failing to anticipate the blue tsunami which swept the Lib Dems from the south-west peninsular.
Here in the East the regional BBC political correspondent, Andrew Sinclair, has pointed out his patch is even more Conservative than it was with Labour failing to take target marginal seats. The BBC’s brilliant idea of a map with each constituency the same size shows graphically what has happened.
Imagine a line on the map from the Severn Estuary to the Wash and we see virtually nothing but blue surrounding London where Labour has reinforced its dominant hold.
For the next five years, the UK is to be ruled by shire Conservatives from the south of England. That is worse than I feared in my previous post.
It is going to be very difficult for David Cameron to convince people in Scotland, Wales and the north of England that he is ruling for the entire United Kingdom.
He will, I am sure, try. Significantly, in his acceptance speech on retaining his seat, he singled out implementing the promises of increased devolution for Scotland and Wales as priorities.
It is going to be very difficult for him the meet the conflicting demands. The DUP in Northern Ireland will generally bolster his small majority but have made it clear that their price is more money for the six counties.
His stronger Conservative contingent from East Anglia will be holding him to promises of much needed infrastructure investment to satisfy their electors.
It is going to be a hard balancing act ruling a United Kingdom which, the map shows, looks even less united this morning.
David Cameron stays in Downing Street. The exit poll, which few could really believe, turned out to be very accurate.
As I write the Conservatives are headed to to a overall majority. But that will be a smaller and more difficult majority than that which the coalition with the Lib Dems gave them.
Westminster MPs are going to have a tough time. It will be much more difficult for them to be away from Westminster when a vote is expected.
All the pre-election polls were wrong in showing a very narrow gap between the Labour and the Conservatives. With 627 seats declared the Toy share was 36.6% while Labour was on 37%. But Labour increased its share of the UK vote increased by 1.4% twice that of the Conservatives. The Labour increase was despite its near wipe-out in Scotland.
There is a lot of number crunching to be done to understand this election which also saw UKIP take 12.7% of the popular vote while the Lib Dems slumped to 7.8%. Clearly UKIP did not greatly damage the Conservatives who inflicted terrible punishment on the Lib Dems for their support over the past five years.
On the face of it, these results – a party with just over a third of the vote getting an overall majority in Westminster – reinforce the the case for electoral reform. But the Conservatives who have won with the first-past-the-post are unlikely to propose a change in their Queen’s speech.
As the psephologists get to work we will learn more about who UKIP took their votes from and where the Lib Dem votes went.
The Conservatives now have to decide how they will govern the whole UK. For the defeated Labour party there will be the probable replacement of its leader and how work with the second largest opposition party, the SNP.
Alex Salmond (SNP) will be one of of the biggest beasts on the opposition benches. A new Labour leader will have find a way of working with the Westminster leader of the party which has inflicted such damage of her, or his, party. If they don’t the opposition will be weakened.
We face interesting political times.
The only organisation to send me a copy of its manifesto is my electricity supplier. It arrived in my email inbox yesterday.
Ecotricity, the green power company, has produced its vision of Britain as a low-carbon state in 2030 and outlining policies for the next government to make this happen.
It is also in the commercial interests of Ecotricity and its founder Dale Vince, said to be worth £100m, that this should happen. I also think it is a valuable vision as we are already seeing the benefits, both for our finances and comfort, of converting our 1960s bungalow into an eco house.
The policies called for are:
- Creating a Minister for Carbon – to set carbon limits across all sectors of the economy
- Ensuring Britain’s power generation is 80% renewable by 2030 – saving £11.7bn in fossil fuel costs
- Implementing ‘Quantitative Greening’ – deploying quantitative easing by the Bank of England directly into the renewables sector
- Ending fossil fuel subsidies – all government support for fossil fuels cut off by 2025
- Increasing support for electric cars – including scrapping VAT, helping to ensure all new cars are electric by 2030
Unlike many political manifestos it is accompanied by a detailed analysis — by Cambridge Econometrics — which, in part, concludes:
It is evident that a commitment to a low-carbon future could lead to substantial growth opportunities in the renewables and motor vehicles sectors and their supply chains. Around 150,000 jobs could be created in the power sector and associated supply chains, with a further 50,000 jobs relating to the motor vehicles industry.
I do hope that our next government recognises that a drive for a low-carbon economy would create more jobs, help re-build the country’s manufacturing industries and be good for our health.
Tomorrow we face the very real danger of deciding the United Kingdom should be ruled by the English shires.
If the predictions are anywhere near right Labour will strengthen its dominant hold on London (an underreported topic in the campaign) and will remain the biggest party in Wales by a big margin. English parties do not contest seats in Northern Ireland, while the Conservatives were virtually wiped out in Scotland some time ago.
That leaves the prospect of the Conservatives, with Liberal Democrat allies, forming a government totally dependent on the English members from outside the capital.
We would not be in this position if both Conservative and Labour parties had not totally mishandled the Scottish independence referendum. First devomax was ruled out as a question on the ballots, then it was effectively promised in order to get a “No” vote.
In the aftermath of the vote, the Conservatives demanded English votes for English laws, which would create two classes of MPs at Westminster.
Scots, not surprisingly, were angry and are expected to vote solidly SNP tomorrow. Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out calling for a new referendum in the next parliament, although I feel she could reasonably go back on this if there is a UK referendum vote to leave the EU. She is campaigning for a distinctly Scottish voice at Westminster.
The Scottish Labour party will not be wiped out tomorrow: it will still have 38 seats in the Holyrood parliament and will still fight for Scotland to remain in the UK. That is an argument they stand a very good chance of winning as there is evidence that attitudes on independence have changed little since the referendum. It is only the maladroitness of English parties which will change this quickly.
But the entrenched positions taken during this campaign means Labour has some difficult decisions to make if it wants to be the next UK government. Miliband and Labour can hardly row back and go into coalition with the SNP which has wiped out Labour representation at Westminster.
It should accept that an effective Scottish Labour party which has 38 MSPs must be given independence to fight the SNP in Holyrood with a Scottish voice. It could still support an English and Welsh labour party as does the SDLP in Northern Ireland.
With independence kicked into the long grass for the next five years and Labour actively campaigning for the UK in Scotland, Milband could enter into an informal partnership with the SNP at Westminster and not have too much egg to wipe off his face. The two parties share much more than separates them.
It would not be easy for him, but it could save the UK. An English nationalist Conservative party trying to force through a referendum on EU membership and English votes for English laws would surely end the union.
Owen James has a good piece on this theme in today’s Guardian, English nationalism is out of the bottle, whoever wins.
Let the debate begin. But that will only happen if the Conservatives do not form the next Government.
The British press has always had an exaggerated idea of its influence on elections but this year it has become even more strident in its blue blooded support for the Tories. My former newspaper colleague Ivor Gaber, now professor of journalism at Sussex University, has a good article on this at the Guardian:
Tory press roars back into action as Labour threatens David Cameron.
Gaber praises the Financial Times. Writing in the Guardian be probably could not say it but the paper has been more red blooded this time.
Living in Central Suffolk and knowing that my vote is not going to make any difference to the national, or local, outcome should make deciding who to vote for easy. Yet have spent the past few weeks vacillating.
While it was never likely I would vote Conservative, Dan Poulter, a personable man with a 13,786 majority last time, has worked hard as a constituency MP and is bound to be re-elected. His literature concentrates on what he has done in the area although some of his claims are “a bit of a stretch” according to a friend in a village where he suggested he was instrumental in saving the post office. The mystery is that in none of the leaflets I have seen does he mention that he is a health minister. Why?
UKIP: there was never a chance I would vote for their man although I do admire the party’s recognition that the way politics is done has to change.
English Democrats are simply not a party I would vote for.
Liberal Democrats: The only political organisation I have ever belonged to is the Young Liberals when I was 17. The main reasons was that I was a member of CND and the Labour party supported British nuclear weapons. Also the Liberals were strong advocates of Britain joining the EU. We worked with the Young Socialists, in a sort of coalition, to bait the Young Conservatives.
Five years ago I lost all trust in the Lib Dems when they went into coalition with the Conservatives. In this campaign it has become clear that Clegg would be prepared to go into the same partnership which could mean supporting a referendum on EU membership. That is my red line.
Labour: If I was in a Conservative held marginal I would vote for them. Their candidate here is young. Jack Abbott, who lives in my village is impressive, wrote his own election leaflet which is full of determination and shows a real understanding of the issues facing the area. He would make a good MP and I hope he gets the chance in a more winnable seat.
Greens: Rhodri Griffiths, their candidate, has retired to Suffolk from Wales where he had fought elections and looks like a safe pair of hands in a currently unwinnable constituency. The party has been building an organisation and in the Mid Suffolk district council elections, also on Thursday, could overtake the Lib Dems to become the largest opposition group.
Years ago we used to judge political trends by the numbers of election posters in an area. Now few people put up posters but of those that do would the Greens are winning in the villages around here.
Until this weekend I was undecided between voting Labour or Green. The deciding moment was when I realised Ed Milliband’s pledge stone was not a hoax. I will vote Green.
By bolstering the Green vote I will, at least, be helping to make the case for electoral reform to give us a more proportionate system. And I prefer their vision of the future, unformed as it is.
This election will be decided not by votes for political parties but by votes against them and their ideas. Students voting against the Lib Dems, Kippers voting against Europe, public employees voting against pay freezes, the rich voting against more taxes, the poor voting against the rich, the Scots voting against English parties, parents voting against school cuts, many voting against gradual privatisation of the NHS – there is a lot to vote against.
But what is there to vote for? There is the smaller state, but that has not been well articulated as a political philosophy. Continuation of the post-war social settlement; again not well articulated. It boils down to a battle between neoliberal and Keynesian economics and that is difficult to explain, especially in the rough and tumble of daily politics. This quote is worth considering:
The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else.
The author is John Maynard Keynes in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) and quoted on the website of Foreign Policy in Focus, a US-based think tank.
Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have projected a vision of the future, which is the way politicians can assert their political philosophy. We can be sure that whoever becomes prime minister after Thursday will have substantially more votes cast against him (assuming either leader is able to form a government) than for him.
Both Miliband and Cameron have failed to tell us the basis of their policies. Boiled down to single phrases it seems to me Labour want a more equally paid society, while the Conservatives want to shrink the state and let the market provide.
By not presenting a clear choice they have left the electorate confused, uncertain and hostile to politics.
Second thoughts on #edestone. A monolith in the garden to remind prime minister Miliband of his pledges and passing a law to remind prime minister Cameron not to increase taxes are probably equally stupid gestures.
On balance, the stone in the garden would probably cost the taxpayers less so is marginally less unacceptable. But both cast doubt on qualification to lead a country.
When I first read that Ed Miliband was to unveil a stone inscribed with his pledges to be installed in Downing Street if he is Prime Minister, I thought it was a hoax.
But it turns out to be true. John Crace writes in the Guardian:
In one of the tightest elections in 50 years that looks set to be won by the party leader whom the public mistrust the least, Ed Miliband has just raised the stupidity bar still higher… There isn’t a single sentient being with connecting synapses anywhere in any planet in any universe who could think that was a good idea.
— Evening Standard (@standardnews) May 3, 2015